A temporary US sanctions waiver has put Iranian oil back on the table, but will Indian refiners return as buyers?While Washington has given Iran a 60-day window to export crude, Indian refiners are unlikely to rush back for those barrels. Most of their oil purchases for the coming months have already been booked, with state-run and private refiners currently securing cargoes for late August and September. Russian and Middle Eastern grades continue to dominate procurement, while Venezuelan crude has also been gaining market share. Analysts say a significant return to Iranian crude appears unlikely for now, given existing supply commitments as well as concerns over payment mechanisms, compliance requirements and uncertainty over what happens after the temporary waiver expires. The short duration of the waiver is another key factor limiting interest. According to Sumit Ritolia, who models refinery and oil markets at Kpler, buyers are unlikely to make major commitments when the future of sanctions remains uncertain.“Opportunistic purchases are possible if discounts become highly attractive, but the overall scope appears limited,” the expert told PTI.India and Iran’s oil storyIndia was once a major customer for Iranian crude, with Iranian Light and Heavy grades enjoying strong demand due to refinery compatibility and favourable commercial terms. Before sanctions tightened, Iranian oil accounted for as much as 11.5% of the country’s total crude imports.That trade came to a halt in May 2019 after US sanctions were strengthened, prompting refiners to replace Iranian barrels with supplies from the Middle East, the United States and other producers.Refiners stay cautiousEven if Iranian crude becomes available again, operational challenges remain. Payment settlement continues to be the biggest obstacle, according to Ritolia, while insurance, shipping and logistics arrangements also need to be addressed before refiners can comfortably resume purchases.The analyst noted that a similar sanctions waiver introduced in March failed to attract significant buying interest outside China because compliance and payment-related issues remained unresolved.Those same concerns are expected to keep most buyers cautious this time as well. Refiners typically seek assurance of stable and uninterrupted supplies before entering into contracts, something that may be difficult under a waiver that lasts only two months.The timeline itself presents practical difficulties. Ritolia said Western refiners are also unlikely to participate because the entire process, from regulatory approvals and contract negotiations to shipping, refining and payment settlement, would need to be completed within the waiver window. In some cases, voyages from Iran can take as long as 40 to 45 days.As a result, China is likely to remain the main destination for Iranian crude unless sanctions relief becomes more predictable and long-lasting.“The waiver may have reopened the door for Iranian exports, but that does not automatically create a broad pool of buyers,” Ritolia said, adding that China is likely to remain the principal destination for Iranian crude unless sanctions relief becomes more durable.
