Gold price prediction today: Gold prices have staged a recovery as geopolitical tensions show signs of abating, but the gains are likely to be limited ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s policy this week, says Manav Modi, Senior Analyst, Commodity Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.Gold prices started the week on a positive note, as easing geopolitical tensions and a weaker US dollar improve sentiment towards bullion, although gains may remain capped ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision. Markets welcomed the temporary pause in hostilities between the United States and Iran after both countries refrained from further military escalation over the weekend, reducing fears of immediate supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea.The de-escalation triggered a sharp decline of more than 5% in crude oil prices, easing concerns over energy-driven inflation and reducing pressure on global central banks to maintain restrictive monetary policies. A softer US Dollar Index also improved the attractiveness of gold for overseas buyers, providing additional support to prices. However, investor caution persists as uncertainty surrounding global trade continues following the US decision to impose fresh tariffs of 10%–12.5% on imports from several trading partners.Attention is now firmly focused on the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting, where interest rates are widely expected to remain unchanged. Market participants will closely monitor Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s policy statement and press conference for fresh guidance on the inflation outlook and the future path of interest rates. Investors will also watch upcoming US inflation and labour market data, which could influence expectations for future monetary policy.The direction of the US dollar, Treasury yields and crude oil prices is expected to remain the key driver for gold prices in the near term, while any shift in geopolitical developments could add to market volatility.Gold has shown signs of stabilising after a prolonged corrective phase, with prices rebounding from recent lows and moving back above the 20-day average. The recovery indicates that buying interest is gradually returning, although the broader trend remains cautious as prices continue to trade well below the major highs recorded earlier this year. Sustaining above the recent breakout level will be crucial for extending the recovery, while failure to do so could attract fresh selling pressure.From the Bollinger Bands perspective, the 20-day moving average (middle band) is placed at Rs 143,524, while the upper band stands at Rs 147,576 and the lower band at Rs 139,472. Gold is currently trading above the middle band, indicating improving short-term momentum. A sustained move above Rs 144,000 could strengthen the recovery and open the door towards the upper Bollinger Band near Rs 147,600, while a move below Rs 143,500 may weaken sentiment and expose prices towards Rs 139,500.The Fibonacci retracement drawn from the major swing low near Rs 97,000 to the all-time high around Rs 179,000 places the 23.6% retracement near Rs 159,700, 38.2% around Rs 147,700, 50% near Rs 138,000, and 61.8% near Rs 128,300. Gold is currently trading between the 50% and 38.2% retracement levels, with Rs 147,700 emerging as the first major upside hurdle. Holding above Rs 143,500 would keep the recovery intact, while a break below Rs 138,000 could signal a deeper correction.Technically, gold appears to be forming a base after the recent decline, with buyers gradually regaining control. Immediate support is placed at Rs 143,500, followed by Rs 139,500 and Rs 138,000. On the upside, Rs 147,600–147,700 remains the first resistance zone, followed by Rs 152,000 and Rs 159,700. Overall, the outlook remains neutral range bound.(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, or any other asset classes or personal finance management tips given by experts and analysts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India.)
