In the previous session, the Nifty 50 ended a range-bound session with a moderate loss of 0.2 percent after reacting to the RBI monetary policy outcome. The index continues to trade below all key moving averages and maintains a lower high–lower low structure, reflecting a weak technical setup. The crucial support zone is placed around 23,100–23,000, which coincides with the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement level of the April rally. A decisive break below this zone may accelerate selling pressure toward 22,700. On the upside, 23,500 remains the immediate hurdle, followed by a stronger resistance zone near 23,700.
Technically, the Nifty 50 formed a bearish candle with minor upper and lower shadows on the daily chart, indicating continued pressure amid volatility. The index remained below all major moving averages, with short- and medium-term averages continuing to trend downward. It also failed to sustain above the 23,400 mark, which had acted as support during the previous sessions. The RSI remained largely flat at 40.64, while the MACD stayed below both the signal and zero lines with expanding red histogram bars, indicating a weak-to-negative bias in the near term.
Derivatives data suggests a cautious undertone. The Nifty Put-Call Ratio (PCR) declined to 0.83 from 1.00 in the previous session, indicating reduced put writing activity and a moderation in bullish sentiment. Although PCR remains above the critical 0.7 level, the decline reflects increasing caution among market participants.
The India VIX eased by 0.61 percent to 15.78, remaining below most key moving averages. While the lower volatility reading offers some comfort, the VIX needs to sustain below the 15 level to provide stronger support for a bullish market environment.
Option chain positioning indicates immediate support around the 23,000 strike, while significant call writing is visible near the 23,500–23,700 zone, reinforcing this area as a major resistance band for the index.
In terms of price structure, Nifty continues to witness selling pressure on every rise and remains trapped in a corrective trend. The lower high–lower low formation remains intact, indicating that bears continue to dominate unless the index decisively reclaims the 23,500–23,700 zone.
Bank Nifty outperformed the benchmark index and extended gains for the fourth consecutive session. The index formed a small-bodied bullish candle with upper and lower shadows, indicating indecision but with a positive undertone. Bank Nifty managed to close above its 20-day EMA and the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement level of the February–April correction, which are important technical supports.
Momentum indicators for Bank Nifty continue to improve. The RSI rose to 50 and generated a positive crossover, while the MACD remained above the signal line with expanding green histogram bars. These indicators suggest strengthening momentum, although a sustained move above 55,000 is required to confirm further upside. Immediate support is placed around 53,700–52,700, while resistance is seen near 55,000.
Overall, the market setup indicates a weak opening amid adverse global cues and geopolitical concerns. While Bank Nifty continues to display relative resilience, the broader Nifty structure remains under pressure. The immediate trading range for Nifty is seen between 23,000 and 23,500, and a decisive breakout on either side is likely to determine the next directional move,” says Aakash Shah, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking Private Limited.
